The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a Paris-based international economic organization, predicts a slowdown in the global economy for 2024. Growth is expected to decrease to 2.7% from the 2.9% forecast for 2023, marking the slowest rate since the 2020 pandemic year. Despite this, the OECD anticipates that most regions will avoid recessions.
Key factors contributing to the slowdown include ongoing wars, persistent high inflation, and continuous interest rate hikes. The United States and China, as the world’s leading economies, are both expected to see reduced growth rates. The U.S. is projected to grow by only 1.5% in 2024, a decrease from 2.4% in 2023, primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s series of interest rate increases that started in March 2022. Inflation in the U.S. is forecasted to fall to 2.8% in 2024 and further to 2.2% in 2025.
China’s economy is also expected to slow down, with a growth projection of 4.7% in 2024, down from 5.2% in 2023. This slowdown is attributed to China’s real estate crisis, increasing unemployment, and a decline in exports.
The eurozone countries are facing economic challenges due to higher interest rates and surging energy prices, mainly caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Growth in the eurozone is expected to be modest, at 0.9% in 2024, slightly better than the 0.6% predicted for 2023.
Overall, the OECD’s outlook suggests a period of slower global growth in 2024, with continued economic challenges but avoiding widespread recessions.
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